What Is The Clubs Transfer Strategy

[Widdow]

Perhaps we need a trip to Denmark to see how Copenhagen have become the masters of the transfer market and get some advice / tips.

Few clubs in Europe can boast their hit rate. Their ability to find value in the market and turn quick profits, all while continuing to win trophies domestically and compete on the continent, marks the champions of Denmark out from the rest.

The list of player sales in recent transfer windows is remarkable.

Denis Vavro was sold to Lazio for £9.5m in the summer with Robert Skov joining Hoffenheim for £9m. Both had been signed for a fraction of those figures just two years earlier.

But they are just the latest in a long list. Robin Olsen was signed for £630,000 and sold to Roma for £8.1m. In the space of a single season, Jesse Joronen was signed for £800,000 and then sold on to Serie A side Brescia for £4.5m.

Copenhagen have been flipping players this way for years and winning titles along the way - twelve of them since 2001. In Europe, the consistency is remarkable. Copenhagen are one of only 15 clubs to have competed in the group stage of European competition in 13 of the past 14 seasons. It is a list that includes Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich. The difference is that Copenhagen had to qualify just to reach the group stage in all but one of those seasons.

So how have they managed it? What is striking is the consistency, not just in terms of the results but the identity of the personnel delivering them.
Stale Solbakken has been Copenhagen's manager for the past seven years having had an earlier five-year stint in charge. Lange was his assistant during that first spell but has spent the past six years in this new role as technical director, overseeing the club's vision.

They have a strong culture and four key principles that have been essential to the club's sustained success., a proactive strategy, stability among key personnel and a very clear style of play which has them punching above their weight in the European
 
They are not in a position to sign ten players every summer. No, scout a player for a long time. And when the bring someone in both the club, manager, fans a player have faith that is the one.
 
They have had to recalibrate the approach to the market to stay ahead by searching for tomorrow's competitive advantage and embracing new ideas.
 
Frederik Leth has been appointed as the club's head of scouting and analysis with a strong emphasis on a data-based approach. This use of statistical analysis has opened up new markets. Federico Santander was signed from a club in his native Paraguay before being sold on to Bologna in the summer of 2018. Eastern Europe is fertile ground now too.

"At the identification phase, our process is very data driven," explains Lange. "We are trying to find players earlier in their career. That is difficult to predict but it is important to try. "The partnership between myself, the manager and the scouts is crucial. We take time at the start of the process to establish exactly what we are looking for. Then we can set the parameters with the data. It is only after that stage that it becomes about live scouting.

"It helps that everyone knows their job and that Stale Solbakken has a clear style of play. It is difficult for the scouts if the style is changing from season to season.

"For example, if you watched Denis Vavro's performances for Zilina in Slovakia, you would not have seen a player whose performances were ready for a top-five league but the potential was definitely there. That is an example of recruitment based on our newer strategy, one that we have tried to fine tune over the past three or four years."

There is still a place for the more experienced player. Nicklas Bendtner passed through Copenhagen recently, while players such as former Brentford defender Andreas Bjelland and club captain Zeca, both 31, who all came in and hit the ground running and will be expected to lead the way against Celtic. 

"We need balance. The younger players need those players alongside them to fulfil their potential."

But the strategy is clear and something similar to what Brentford are doing.

I cannot see Forest’s strategy at moment, can you.

[Username]

One thing that we clearly do well is sell players at a profit, it would not surprise me if Bong moved in the summer for somewhere between £500k and £1m.

That tied in with our ability to grow high value players from the academy: Brereton, Appiah, Osborn, Burke to name but a few, is clearly part of our current identity.

Agree with it or not it is what it is for us to be somewhere near sustainable in the absence of parachute payments or PL money.

[Widdow]

One thing that we clearly do well is sell players at a profit, it would not surprise me if Bong moved in the summer for somewhere between £500k and £1m.

That tied in with our ability to grow high value players from the academy: Brereton, Appiah, Osborn, Burke to name but a few, is clearly part of our current identity.

Agree with it or not it is what it is for us to be somewhere near sustainable in the absence of parachute payments or PL money.

Not sure we will be able to get that much for Bong at all, Brighton have been trying to offload him for ages.

But i do agree, we have sold off our younger players well making profit, and of course players coming on a free from Oly have helped, when we sell them on. 

Struggled to sell some of the deadwood though.

[zicorice]

We went through a long period of not selling any non academy player for a profit until Antonio. Buying cheap and selling big is not easy.

[Strawberry Avenger]

1. All players have a value and will be sold for that. i.e. won't be let go for 'nothing in the Summer.' That strategy was killing Forest.
2. Raise the technical capability of the squad whilst applying downward pressure on the unsustainable strategy 100+ wages turnover. ie. High wages for mediocre players are history.
3. Invest in Academy talent to play in the 1st team and sell one or two to balance the books or to help a broader transfer policy of improving the technical quality of the quad overall.

That's what they're doing.

They're still churning through the 140% wages figure. (What is it now? 120%? Still over 100%.) Wages turnover is probably reflected in the terms of ambition this January. There is money to spend. But it won't be on £15 million Gayle who has a hamstring problem. More like £2 million on Da Costa who has a groin problem. It's a crap window to do business in because teams want to hold onto their best players and the ones who aren't playing aren't fit et etc. To do the business Forest did serves Forest some credit. It's not what we hoped for but it is what we wanted. 2 strikers, 1 winger and an actual LB. (Plus two u23 products let us not forget who may not be that far away from the 1st team.)

Therefore, point 3 is still in transition.

I think the club are barely into a year with the current football hierarchy and the resulting position of '5th' shows:

1. Homegrown talent. Worrall.
2. British transfer talent. Grabban.
3. Continental talent. Sow.
4. Loans vs Permanents vs Homegrown. It's cheaper overall and you can send them back if they come in on loan.

I think that's pretty balanced. The 'oddity' of Car' was for £13 million and Grabban for £6 million has vanished with 'big spending' Aitor. They have pulled back from that. Now that recruitment is getting established there is less necessity to go out splashing large sums. That's the whole point of recruitment. Find the diamonds like Sow for little coin.

The days of us 'big spending' like Derby (or anyone for that matter) seem to be approaching an end for Championship clubs. And prudent fiscal policy is in.

And Forest are catching up quick with their footballing peers in the Championship.

It will take another year to see the back end of this '3 year' process. They've had to shift a lot of 'dead weights' from previous managers.

There's a difference between crisis management (what Marinankis inherited) with the the appointment of Warburton. The transfer policy being put in place and the departure of Warburton and Aitor coming in. But even he didn't fit with the new football hierarchy, transfer and fiscal policy of Forest. So despite being 'continental' he left. Now, with the 'hierarchy' in place, they have 'The Coach' who fits in with this.

The result? We have two LBs go out for £2.5 million and one come in on a free. This funds Da Costa in a January window where precious few strengthened.

I dare say in the Summer Car and Cash will be sold to make the final push for an auto spot. And an exodus of loans and end of contracts will be let go. Forest will be close to break even on wages by this time if they push hard on prudence again.

That's why you're seeing so many loans. It's cheaper overall to employ them. If they don't work out...you're not boat anchored with a £13 million player who can't cut it in the Championship.

The strategy for recruitment is simple. Bring one in? One goes out. Bring in a player affordably? Sell for more if you can. Sustainable business. That's the future of Forest.

You don't win them all, people aren't robots manufactured to a perfect footballing tolerance to life in teh Championship.

But the 'new' Forest are going to win more.

Forest are 5th. That's the new recruitment policy. The 1st team is evidence of the new strategy. So, the 2nd string lost to Charlton. The 1st team could have. Sow could have got 'more injured' if played. Forest are being practical considering where they're at.

They're still in a club in transition from being badly run to properly run.

It's going to take another year or two (see New Stand being built...) to really get on top of this transition.

But I feel with Marinakis onboard, the Forest Legacy is in safe hands.

SA.

[Username]

We went through a long period of not selling any non academy player for a profit until Antonio. Buying cheap and selling big is not easy.

Bamford, Darlow and Lascalles before that.

[Username]

One thing that we clearly do well is sell players at a profit, it would not surprise me if Bong moved in the summer for somewhere between £500k and £1m.

That tied in with our ability to grow high value players from the academy: Brereton, Appiah, Osborn, Burke to name but a few, is clearly part of our current identity.

Agree with it or not it is what it is for us to be somewhere near sustainable in the absence of parachute payments or PL money.

Not sure we will be able to get that much for Bong at all, Brighton have been trying to offload him for ages.

But i do agree, we have sold off our younger players well making profit, and of course players coming on a free from Oly have helped, when we sell them on. 

Struggled to sell some of the deadwood though.

I see where you’re coming from but the fees received for Chema, Tachitidis and Kapino all show that the Club can turn water into wine with players that were barely involved with the first team.

[zicorice]

We went through a long period of not selling any non academy player for a profit until Antonio. Buying cheap and selling big is not easy.

Bamford, Darlow and Lascalles before that.

As I said....

[Username]

We went through a long period of not selling any non academy player for a profit until Antonio. Buying cheap and selling big is not easy.

Bamford, Darlow and Lascalles before that.

As I said....

Apologies, yes absolutely.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

One thing that we clearly do well is sell players at a profit, it would not surprise me if Bong moved in the summer for somewhere between £500k and £1m.

That tied in with our ability to grow high value players from the academy: Brereton, Appiah, Osborn, Burke to name but a few, is clearly part of our current identity.

Agree with it or not it is what it is for us to be somewhere near sustainable in the absence of parachute payments or PL money.

Not sure we will be able to get that much for Bong at all, Brighton have been trying to offload him for ages.

But i do agree, we have sold off our younger players well making profit, and of course players coming on a free from Oly have helped, when we sell them on. 

Struggled to sell some of the deadwood though.

I see where you’re coming from but the fees received for Chema, Tachitidis and Kapino all show that the Club can turn water into wine with players that were barely involved with the first team.

And Soudani and Ansarifard. So Chema, Tachitidis, Kapino, Soudani, Ansarifard. Some big money made there. In fact they could be seen as being great deals by the club.

[zicorice]

One thing that we clearly do well is sell players at a profit, it would not surprise me if Bong moved in the summer for somewhere between £500k and £1m.

That tied in with our ability to grow high value players from the academy: Brereton, Appiah, Osborn, Burke to name but a few, is clearly part of our current identity.

Agree with it or not it is what it is for us to be somewhere near sustainable in the absence of parachute payments or PL money.

Not sure we will be able to get that much for Bong at all, Brighton have been trying to offload him for ages.

But i do agree, we have sold off our younger players well making profit, and of course players coming on a free from Oly have helped, when we sell them on. 

Struggled to sell some of the deadwood though.

I see where you’re coming from but the fees received for Chema, Tachitidis and Kapino all show that the Club can turn water into wine with players that were barely involved with the first team.

And Soudani and Ansarifard. So Chema, Tachitidis, Kapino, Soudani, Ansarifard. Some big money made there. In fact they could be seen as being great deals by the club.

I do feel that he was the one that got away. Looked a good CF and would have been ideal back up for Grabban. A great option off the bench with his movement unlike Mir.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

I liked Ansarifard too but like Chema he couldn't settle and wanted out. Pity, he could have been very useful this season. At least we made a tidy profit like we do on most permanent transfers that don't work out for whatever reason.